10911 Technology Place, San Diego, CA 92127
858-436-7770 | www.xperagroup.com
Short-Term Rentals
In the City of San Diego:
An Economic Impact Analysis
October 2017
Prepared by
Alan Nevin, Director
Economic Research Division
Xpera Group
For
Share San Diego
HomeAway/Expedia
Austin Texas
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Introduction
Xpera Group has undertaken and now completed an analysis of the short-term lodging
industry in the City of San Diego. An earlier study on the same topic was completed by
the National University System Institute of Policy Research in October 2015.
This study has five elements:
Section 1: The Economic Benefits of Short-term Lodging to the City and
County of San Diego.
Section 2: The Short-Term Lodging Market and Its Effect on Hotel
Occupancy and Rates
Section 3: The San Diego Traditional Housing Market
Section 4: The Short-Term Lodging Market in the City of San Diego & Its
Effect on the Availability of Housing; and
Section 5: Research on the California and San Diego tourism/hotel market.
Facts and data for this study were gathered from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S.
Department of Commerce, San Diego Tourist Authority, City of San Diego’s Treasurer’s
office, San Diego Port District, San Diego County Assessor, Voice of San Diego,
HomeAway, Airdna.co, Airbnb, Expedia, STR, Dean Runyan Associates, TNS Travel
America, CBRE and from Xpera Group’s extensive database. All exhibits note the source
of the data.
We wish to acknowledge the cooperation of the National University System Institute of
Policy Research. For the most part, we followed its methodology and, when, possible,
utilized the same sources of data. We also received data directly from the short-term
lodging industry.
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Study Purpose and Key Findings
The purpose of this study is to assess the economic and fiscal impacts of the short-term
lodging market on the City of San Diego and to assess the relationship between short-
term lodging market and both the hotel market and the traditional long-term residential
sale and rental markets.
Short-Term Lodging and Effect on the Hotel Market
We have reviewed numerous studies on the effect of short-term lodging and the hotel
market in the United States in preparation for this study.
The San Diego County hotel market in 2016 had among the highest occupancy rates
and highest revenues per room of all the major tourism metropolitan areas in the United
States. Projections for 2017 indicate that the favorable trend will continue.
The City of San Diego hotel market shares in the County’s hotel market’s occupancy
and room rate success in recent years.
Much of the health of the hotel market relates to the general economic health of the
economy and, as important, the growth of the foreign visitor market, particularly the
Chinese visitor market.
A substantial portion of the short-term lodging market is not a candidate for traditional
hotel rooms, either because of budgetary considerations or because hotel room
configurations do not appeal to the family market or larger parties traveling together and
who want the privacy of an entire residence.
Most studies indicate that total short-term lodging nights in the U.S. are equal to
approximately 2.4% of total hotel room nights, a percentage that is anticipated to
increase over the next few years.
We have reached the conclusion that short-term lodging as a percent of total occupied
room nights is less than 3.0% and that a substantial portion of that 3.0% would not
utilize traditional hotels because of cost (particularly in high occupancy periods) and
preference to be in a private residence or share a residence.
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The Short-Term Lodging Market and its Effect on the Rental Housing
Market
The short-term lodging market is growing internationally and certainly within the city and
county of San Diego.
Its growth is somewhat limited by the prohibition of short-term lodging in professionally
managed apartment and condominium projects and in several better-quality master-
planned communities.
The short-term lodging market consists of three types of lodging: room-sharing, private
room in an owner or renter-occupied residential unit; and the rental of an entire
residence.
This study concentrates on the rental of an entire residence when the owner or renter is
not in residence for a substantial portion of the year and therefore the unit would not be
available to the traditional owner-occupied or rental market.
The Economic Benefits to the City and County of Short-Term Lodging
We have concluded that the direct effect of spending on short term lodging in the
City of San Diego will be almost $300 million in 2017. In addition, there is indirect
and induced spending of another $200+ million that relates to the multiplier effect
of direct dollar expenditures.
In addition, the City will have sales tax generation of almost $700,000.
In total, in 2017, we project that the short-term lodging business will produce
almost $500 million in the City of San Diego.
In addition, the short-term lodging industry will create more than 3,000 jobs in the
City in 2017.
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Category
Total Output
($Millions)
Employment
Direct Effect Expenditures 286,955,443$ 1,674
Lodging 193,093,700$
Non-Lodging (1) 93,861,743$
Indirect & Induced Effect
Indirect Effect 31,941,000$ 194
Induced Effect 162,240,000$ 1,240
Total Indirect & Induced Effect 194,181,000$ 1,435
Sales Tax Generation 683,189$
Total 481,819,632$ 3,109
(1) Assume 75% spent in the City of San Diego (the total amount is $125,148,991)
Source: Indirect & induced effect based on Natiional University study & IMPLAN model
Economic Impact &
Employment Generation
Short-Term Lodgers
City of San Diego
2017 (P)
Exhibit 1
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Section 1: The Economic Benefits of Short-Term Lodging to the
City and County of San Diego
In this section, we determine the economic benefits of short-term lodging for the City of
San Diego. The spending falls into two categories: lodging and non-lodging:
Section 1-1: TOT from Spending on Lodging
Based on TOT collected in the first six months of 2017, we project that the total to be
collected in 2017 will be more than $19 million. It is likely that as the collection
procedures get more sophisticated the City’s TOT will grow faster than the number of
nights rented.
Exhibit 2
These figures relate to the $110,000,000 total computed three ago in the National
University study, reflecting a substantial increase in bookings and rates.
In order to avoid exaggeration of revenues, we have assumed that the gross revenues
shown above represent the entire short-term lodging market in the City of San Diego.
As noted earlier, actual room night totals from multiple sources are not available, though
we know that virtually all short-term lodging units are listed on multiple sites.
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Section 1-2: Non-Lodging Spending
Non-lodging spending includes meals and beverages, entertainment, local
transportation and other items that visitor typically spend. Based on a CIC Visitor Study
the typical “visitor group” spends $200 per night in addition to lodging.
Exhibit 3
We assumed that the $200.46 would be for an entire home lodging. In addition to the
entire house short-term lodgers, we add the private room and room-sharing spending at
50% and 25% of the amount of the entire home spending.
In total, the spending on non-lodging totals $125,148,991, as shown here:
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Section 1-3: Total Direct & Indirect Spending
Tourism spending falls into two basic categories; Direct and Indirect/Induced
Expenditures.
Direct expenditures are those dollars expended by short-term lodgers on their lodging
and non-hotel expenditures such as food, entertainment and rental cars.
Indirect and induced expenditures are those that are part of the multiplier effect. For
example, when the owner of a lodging facility then spends their proceeds on personal
items like food or entertainment that creates another round of consumer spending.
The exhibit below details the expenditures. The exhibit also projects the number of jobs
created by short-term lodging. For 2017 we have projected that short-term lodging will
create more than 3,000 jobs.
Exhibit 5
Category
Total Output
($Millions)
Employment
Direct Effect Expenditures 286,955,443$ 1,674
Lodging 193,093,700$
Non-Lodging (1) 93,861,743$
Indirect & Induced Effect
Indirect Effect 31,941,000$ 194
Induced Effect 162,240,000$ 1,240
Total Indirect & Induced Effect 194,181,000$ 1,435
Sales Tax Generation 683,189$
Total 481,819,632$ 3,109
(1) Assume 75% spent in the City of San Diego (the total amount is $125,148,991)
Source: Indirect & induced effect based on Natiional University study & IMPLAN model
Economic Impact &
Employment Generation
Short-Term Lodgers
City of San Diego
2017 (P)
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The multiplier effect (indirect and induced) was determined through the use of an
economic model created by the U.S. Department of Commerce 30 years ago (when we
first used it in a study) and has been refined since. It is a highly sophisticated model that
explains the ripple effect of spending in the economy, by industry.
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Section 2: The Short-Term Lodging Market and Its Effect on
Hotel Occupancy and Rates
The short-term lodging market has been a staple of European countries for decades
and has only recently become a factor in accommodating persons touring in America.
Section 2-1: The Short-Term Lodging Market
The short-term lodging market in the U.S. has blossomed of late largely because of the
opportunities that have availed themselves on the web. Major sites such as HomeAway
and VRBO have dramatically broadened the opportunity for travel, both in the U.S. and
abroad.
It has been of particular significance for persons who cannot afford traditional hotel
accommodations, especially in the key marketplaces that attract the most tourists, like
New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Orlando and San Diego. It has been a
particular boon for the family market because of the ability to house a couple with
children in an entire home or condominium for rent.
In addition, there has been a substantial expansion of foreign visitations in the past few
years, heavily from the Far East and predominantly Chinese. This foreign visitor
expansion has been a major positive factor in hotel occupancy in the popular tourist
cities, both in the U.S. and in Europe.
Exhibit 6
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The Pew Research Center recently completed an in-depth survey of the “shared”
economy. The study reported that 11% of American adults have used online services
such as HomeAway or VRBO to obtain lodging overnight in a private residence. The
study showed that those using the shared facilities included a broad range of ages,
ethnicity, education and income.
The short-term lodging reports that its occupancy rates for available facilities is typically
half the occupancy rate of hotels in major metropolitan areas around the U.S. that have
the highest occupancy rates.
STR, a leading hotel research firm, recently completed a “Short Term Lodging and Hotel
Performance Study.” The study only focused on “entire homes an/d condominiums.” Its
findings did not include shared housing. Its findings were interesting:
As of July 2017, the hotel industry has recorded its 77
th
consecutive month of
revenue-per-available-room growth.
Short term lodging occupancy generally was highest in markets where hotels had
high occupancy.
Exhibit 7
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Hotel occupancy was significantly higher than short term lodging occupancy.
While short term lodging’s share of total accommodation supply (i.e., short term
lodging and hotel rooms) was growing, its share of market demand and revenue
still was generally below 3.0%.
Short term lodging guests typically lodged longer than the average hotel guest,
with roughly half of short term lodging room nights coming from trips of seven
days or longer.
Short term lodging guests tend to be much younger than hotel guests and have a
higher percentage of females than hotels.
The number of nights during which hotels have experienced 95% or higher
occupancy has gradually increased, rising from 15 in 2010 to 71 in 2016.
In those high occupancy periods, hotels saw no degradations of their rate
premiums which were 35% higher than their regular rates.
As part of the study, which examined seven major metropolitan areas including Los
Angeles and San Francisco, short term lodging’s share of weekday demand has
increased steadily in the past three years, but in most cases, did not rise above 3.0%.
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Section 2-2: Short-Term Lodging as % of the Hotel Market, San Diego
County
Based on dollar figures that the City of San
Diego provided to us, the City collected
$15.6 million in short-term lodging TOT in
2016 and based on the first half of 2017
will collect more than $19.0 million in
2017. This short-term total represents a
200% increase over 2015. We attribute this
to the major short-term lodging websites
that only recently (fall 2015) began to
withhold short-term lodging TOT.
Based on research in other markets and the given strength of the local hotel market, it is
difficult to arrive at a conclusion other than that the short-term lodging market has had a
minimal and/or negligible effect on the hotel market.
We have reached the conclusions that short-term lodging as a percent of total occupied
room nights is less than 3.0% and that a substantial portion of that 3.0% would not
utilize traditional hotels because of cost (particularly in high occupancy periods) and a
preference to be in a private residence or share a residence.
Exhibit 9
Exhibit 8
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Section 3: The San Diego Traditional Housing Market
As a background for a discussion of the short-term occupancy market, we have
prepared data on the number of housing units in the County and the City of San Diego.
The City of San Diego has 66% of the County’s owner-occupied housing and 44% of its
renter-occupied housing.
Exhibit 10
Within the City of San Diego, of the total
housing inventory, 64% is owner-occupied and
36% renter-occupied.
This study will focus on owner-occupied
housing for this reason:
Renter-occupied housing is typically bound by
leases that prohibit subletting, although it is
difficult to monitor home-sharing as long as the
renter is in residence. Also, it would be difficult
to monitor a situation where tenants rent their
unit while they go on a vacation. In any event,
home-sharing would rarely have an effect on
the overall supply and demand of rental
housing.
Exhibit 11
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Within the rental housing category, there are a substantial number of homes and
condominiums in the Pacific Beach area that have been rented to the vacation market
for decades and have never really been part of the local housing stock. It has proven
difficult to accurately document the total number in that category.
Thus, we will focus on the 227,287 single family homes and 168,228 condominiums in
the City. We do not envision a situation where mobile homes or other owner-occupied
forms of housing are part of the short-term lodging inventory.
Our research indicates that many, if not most, homeowner associations have taken a
strong stand against short-term vacation renters and often levy substantial fines for
violations.
Similarly, several major master-planned communities, like Del Sur, have also placed
prohibitions on short-term rentals.
We should note that the City Council and Mayor of the City of San Diego are newly
putting forth an effort to alleviate the housing shortage. This effort is focused on
producing both new sale and rental housing, particularly in transit-oriented locations.
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Section 4: The Short-Term Lodging Market in the
City of San Diego & Its Effect on the Availability of Housing
The short-term housing market in San Diego County has grown exponentially in the
past few years, mirroring the growth of that industry in other major metropolitan areas.
It is segmented into three categories: entire home, private room and room-sharing.
Documenting the total number of housing units involved in short-term lodging is rather
difficult for these reasons:
Currently, virtually all of the City’s TOT revenues come from the major short-term
lodging firms like HomeAway and VRBO, but they do not represent the entirety of
the market, by far, especially for the rental of private rooms and room-sharing.
Virtually all property owners of short-term lodging units advertise on multiple
listing sites, so adding the listings of the major firms together would produce
outlandishly misleading numbers.
The number of sites listed changes substantially from month to month as many,
or perhaps most, units are not available on a regular basis.
Research on short-term lodging is only now beginning to get the attention of
major research firms and the academic world. To have accurate lodging figures,
the research firms would need the databases of the major short-term lodging
firms in order to eliminate duplication of housing units. Achieving that on a
national scale is a daunting exercise.
Each of the major short-term lodging firms keep its statistics on different models
and often prefer not to share the data with independent research firms.
The major short-term lodging firms have different market strategies. For instance,
HomeAway only rents “entire homes” while Airbnb rents entire homes, private
rooms and room-sharing.
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Section 4-1: The Size of the Local Short-Term Lodging Market
On the following exhibit, we show the estimated total number of short-term lodging
“listings” for the month of June 2017 for both the City of San Diego and the County.
Two-thirds of the listings are in the City of San Diego.
Also, two-thirds of the listings are for entire homes (detached or attached).
Exhibit 12
Note: Estimated active short-term rental users in the City of San Diego with at least three bookings
in the most recent calendar year. Estimates multiple listings and duplicates have been removed.
We can also note that the industry is changing. The private room and shared room
lodging is declining as a percent of the business of the major web-based lodging firms.
In this exhibit, we show the percentage of listings on short term lodging firms for the
months of June in 2015, 2016 and 2017. The “whole home” listings as a percent of the
total are nearing 70%.
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Exhibit 13
Note: Estimated active short-term rental users in the City of San Diego with at least three bookings
in the most recent calendar year. Estimates multiple listings and duplicates have been removed.
Also notable is the more than doubling of listings between 2015 and 2017 in all three
lodging categories.
We are unable to project the continuing trajectory of this pattern but suspect the short-
term lodging market will continue to grow.
Section 4-2: Listings and Bookings
In the City of San Diego, the number of
listings of entire homes is anticipated to
pass the million level in 2017, resulting in
more than 600,000 bookings. The
bookings to listings ratio continues to
increase and is now approaching 60%.
Taking a snapshot of the listings and
bookings in the month of June in 2015,
2016 and 2017, it is evident that the
volume of both bookings and listings
continues to increase, but also the
percent booked is accelerating. We have
projected that in 2017, some 80%
of listings will be booked. Note: Estimated active short-term rental users in the
City of San Diego with at least three booking in the
most recent calendar year. Estimates multiple listings
and duplicates have been removed.
Exhibit 14
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Exhibit 15
Note: Estimated active short-term rental users in the City of San Diego with at least three bookings in the most recent
calendar year. Estimates multiple listings and duplicates have been removed.
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Section 4-3: Conclusions on Number of Homes in the Short-term
Lodging Market in the City of San Diego
During the course of this study, we have been in contact with HomeAway, Airdna.com
(a short-term lodging research firm) and short-term lodging rental firms.
Based on our research, we estimate that the total number of “entire” short term lodging
housing units (homes and condominiums) that are in the City of San Diego at the
present time is in the range of 5,000-7,500.
This range is based on the assumption that HomeAway, VRBO and Airbnb rentals
(eliminating duplication of listings with other web-based services) represent 70-80% of
the total short-term rental homes available in the City of San Diego.
Also taken into account, but not documentable, are the number of homes that are only
in the short-term lodging business for part of the year. One of our sources who
specializes in beach rentals said that many of their listings are vacation home owners
who only use the home a few weeks a year and occasionally rent the homes for short-
term lodging. For that reason they are not and have not been part of the traditional
housing market.
In the unincorporated area of San Diego County, we learned that in fiscal year 2016-
2017 the County collected TOT on 243 residences. The City of San Diego was unable
or unwilling to provide us with that same information.
We also assume that most of the listing inventory is in the lands that straddle the I-5
between Ocean Beach and La Jolla.
On balance, our research indicates that in the City of San Diego, approximately
1.0% of the home and condominium inventory is devoted to short term lodging.
Section 4.4: The Economics of Short-Term Lodging for an
Owner/Lessor
An owner must calculate the profitability of operating a residential unit as a year-round
short-term lodging accommodation.
It is one option to lease out your residence while you are on a vacation, but yet another
if you are to devote a residence to full-time short-term lodging.
Our analysis indicates that a residence becomes profitable as a short-term lodging
business if the rents can be high enough and if a unit can be occupied more than the
industry average of 40%.
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In metropolitan areas where hotel rates and occupancies are high, and that the
residence is well-located, it is logical to assume that it will be possible to far exceed the
40% average and obtain the rents necessary to be profitable.
Recent research has indicated that owners of second homes in strong locations are
increasing as a percent of the total short-term lodging market.
Thus, based on our pro-forma below, on a year-round basis, it would be necessary to
achieve an average rent of up to $275 per night with a 50% year-round occupancy in
order to match or exceed the rent the unit could obtain as a traditional rental unit. In
most locales, we believe that level of rent would be difficult to obtain on a year-round
basis.
Exhibit 16
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Section 4-5: The Short-Term Lodging Conundrum: Pacific Beach
(92109)
We want to single out a discussion of Pacific Beach (92109). It is the most popular
beach resort for tourists visiting San Diego. It has, unfortunately, an extremely limited
number of hotel rooms.
The dearth of hotel rooms relates to a 1972 Citizen’s Initiative that placed a 30’ foot
height limit on construction in the beach areas. As a result, the only two hotels of
substance in the Pacific Beach area are now 40+ years of age and preceded the
Initiative.
As a result of the dearth of modern hotel space near the beach, a substantial portion of
the housing inventory (homes, apartments and condominiums) is rented out to
vacationers. Some of the units are rented from September through May as regular
apartments but are then available only for summer guests at summer short-term rates.
We have been unable to document the percent of housing units in this category.
Theoretically, TOT is paid on units rented for less than 30 days, but the documentation
is sparse.
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Section 5: The California and San Diego Tourism/Hotel Market
In Section 5, we discuss the travel and hotel markets in both the state of California and
San Diego County.
Section 5.1 Travel in California
California tourism is an industry of
enormous proportions. In 2016, it is
estimated to encompass spending of $126
Billion, directly support 1.1 million jobs with
earnings of $45.4 billion and generate $4.9
billion in local taxes and $5.3 billion in state
taxes.
California ranks as the number one state for
foreign tourism. As in the past, Mexico is
first in trips to California with Canada in
second place both in the 2011 and 2017
survey. The major surprise is the substantial increase in visitors from China. This year it is
forecasted that the number of visitors to California from China will match the total from
Canada and move into third place for visitations.
Exhibit 18
Exhibit 17
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Section 5.2: San Diego Tourism Ranking
Within California, San Diego County is the second most popular metropolitan area
visited, with Los Angeles in first place and Anaheim/Orange County and the San
Francisco Area in third and fourth place.
As with metropolitan areas visited, San Diego ranked second in direct travel-
generated employment, once again behind Los Angeles with Orange, Riverside and
San Francisco in third, fourth and fifth place, respectively.
In terms of travel-generated tax revenue per household in California, San Diego ranked
third with $543 dollars per household. In this category, Los Angeles is in first place with
San Francisco in second place. San Diego was followed by Orange and Alameda
Counties in fourth and fifth place.
Exhibit 19
Exhibit 20
Exhibit 21
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Section 5.3: Total Visitations and Economic Impact to San Diego
County
CIC Research prepares annual studies of visitations to San Diego County. They
segment the count into day visitors and overnight visitors.
In 2016, they estimated a total of 30.4 million visitors, 17.4 million, or 57% of whom
lodged overnight. Between 2010 and 2016, the visitor count increased by 4.0 million, or
15.5%. It is important to note that the increases have been steady, with gains each year
since 2010.
Exhibit 22
Exhibit 23
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Employment Generation
Based on a study by Dean Runyan Associates prepared for the state of California,
140,000 jobs were generated by the tourism industry in 2016, an increase of 23% since
2010. The largest single category was “accommodations and food service”, accounting
for 58.6% of total employment generation.
Exhibit 24
Visitor Spending
CIC Research has calculated that visitor spending in San Diego County in 2016 was
$10.4 billion, a highly positive change of almost 50% since 2010. Similarly, the regional
impact of $17.2 billion in 2016 is anticipated to increase by a like percentage in 2017.
Exhibit 25
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Section 5.4 Transient Occupancy Tax Collections and Hotel
Occupancy and Revenues per Room
Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) is levied on long and short-term accommodations in
most cities of San Diego County. In total, the County collections totaled $266.9 million in
2016. Of that total, 76% of the collections were in the City of San Diego.
In the City of San Diego, in 2016, TOT totaled $202.8 million. Of perhaps the most
interest is that of the total TOT gain Countywide from 2010 to 2016, 97% was in the City
of San Diego
Exhibit 26
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Hotel Occupancy and Rates
The hotel market in San Diego County is one of the strongest in the Nation, with
occupancy rates second only to Las Vegas. In 2016, average occupancy rates
Countywide were 77.1% and higher, 79.1% in the City of San Diego. Of equal
importance, occupancy rates have continued to climb in each year since 2010.
Exhibit 27
In 2010, in the City of San Diego, occupancy rates were 68.3% and have climbed to
79.1% in 2016.
Exhibit 28
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Of equal importance, REVPAR (revenue per room) has continued to climb in both the
County of San Diego and the City of San Diego. Since 2010, in the City of San Diego,
REVPAR has moved upward from $124 per night to $162 per night in 2016, an annual
gain of 6.1%, far outpacing the inflation rate (CPI) in the same timeframe.
Exhibit 29
Exhibit 30
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In downtown and near the coast, REVPAR was substantially higher than the city-wide
and County-wide averages, as shown here:
Exhibit 31
Section 5.5: Hotel Construction
Given the continually high occupancy and growing REVPAR, hotel developers have
sensed the need for more hotel space in San Diego.
In the following exhibit, we show the hotels that have been completed in the downtown
area since 2015 as well as those under construction and in planning.
In total, 1,168 rooms have been completed since 2015, with another 775 rooms under
construction and 3,964 rooms in planning.
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Exhibit 32
In addition, there are hotels that have been recently completed, under construction and
in planning elsewhere in the County, mostly in those communities straddling the I-5
freeway and/or at the casinos.
The County has an almost complete dearth of hostels and other moderate priced
visitor lodging. As a result, short-term rentals have become a partial substitute
for that visitor lodging type in San Diego.
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Section 5-6: Convention Center
The City of San Diego’s convention center maintains
one of the highest occupancy rates in the Nation with
a 74% occupancy rate projected for 2017. The rate of
occupancy has steadily climbed each year since
2010.
A third phase of the convention center is in planning
although the completion date is not certain. The third
phase will allow San Diego to compete for the larger
National conventions and, of course, create
substantial additional demand for accommodations of
all types.
Section 5.7: Cruise Ship Passengers
It is highly likely that the hotel occupancy rates would
be higher than they are today if the cruise ship
business has not dissipated in the past few
years, as many of the passengers extend their
vacations by visiting San Diego either before or
after their cruise.
In 2008, San Diego hosted almost 1.0 million
passengers. Most of their cruises were Mexican-
bound. In that timeframe, there was
considerable press about drug-related murders
and other assorted crimes in Mexico. As a
result, the cruise ship business plummeted 80%
to a low of 182,693 passengers in 2014 and has
now stabilized and is very gradually increasing.
As that business returns, it will drive higher
occupancy in the downtown and coastal hotels.
Exhibit 33
Exhibit 34
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Methodology
The methodology used in this report closely follows that of the National University study
from 2015. We did have the benefit of data that was not previously available as a result
of newer data-collecting methods and a broader range of research sources.
The most difficult research relates to accurately determining the number of available
short-term lodging facilities and their percent of utilization. We relied substantially on
HomeAway, Airdna.co and Airbnb for input data on that subject. We are confident that
our findings are statistically accurate within ranges of data, but hesitate to put “exact
numbers” on the findings.
In recent years, the number of on-line services that provide short-term lodging facilities
has expanded exponentially as have the number of persons using those on-line
services, as room-sharing and private-room loading have become more acceptable and
have therefore allowed a far larger segment of the population to vacation with modest
budgets.
Data on spending is not an exact science, but we did have several sources that led us
to what we consider realistic findings. In many cases, we know we understated
spending for non-hotel items like food and beverages. We were not able to determine
accurately spending on such venues as gaming casinos or other major event spending
like horse racing, Legoland, SeaWorld or the Zoo, or, for that matter, a day at
Disneyland or Tijuana.
We also estimated that 75% of non-lodging expenditures would be within the City of
San Diego. That conclusion is logical but certainly not result from scientific
methodology.
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Xpera Group
Xpera Group is the West Coast’s most comprehensive team of construction consultants
and strategic advisors for the built environment. Having started as a construction
forensics firm in 2009, we have expanded our offerings over the years to deliver
specialized expertise to clients at all phases of the development process.
Having assembled more than 50 highly experienced construction professionals in
virtually every specialty trade, we are uniquely qualified to serve a wide range of clients,
including contractors, developers, legal and insurance professionals, and property
owners.
We are able to customize service solutions to meet each client’s unique goals, whether
it’s ensuring quality standards, avoiding costly construction delays and claims, or
achieving successful resolution for troubled projects. Quite simply, we are the
construction industry’s problem-solvers and your partners for construction success.
Economic Research Division
In today’s world, gathering the statistical data for a market research report is the easy
part. Achieving a deeper understanding of the various market forces at play on a
specific project requires a more sophisticated approach.
Xpera Group’s economic research division is led by Alan Nevin, one of the West
Coast’s leading real estate economists. With decades of proven experience in both
economics and real estate development, he specializes in producing market strategy
studies, which represents a major departure from traditional market research reports.
What is the distinction? Most market research reports include a multitude of pages filled
with statistics on the economy and market, followed by brief conclusions and a
summary of project recommendations. What is inevitably missing is the most critical
elementthe strategy and analysis that connect the statistics to the recommendations.
That’s where we shine.
Having performed over 1,000 market studies across the United States and as a former
chief economist for the California Building Industry Association, Nevin is uniquely
positioned to help ensure your project has the best strategy for success.
Economic & Market Research Studies
Feasibility Studies for residential and commercial development
Economic Overviews, Forecasting and Trending Major Metropolitan Areas
Residential and commercial property valuations
Fiscal impact reports
Public sector redevelopment area strategies for growth and repositioning
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Litigation Support
Expert Witness Deposition and Trial Testimony for: Valuation, Damages,
Proper Professional Practices and Industry Standards
Supporting Research & Analysis Assist Attorneys in Case Strategies, Asset
Valuation, Calculated Damages, Financial Feasibility and Proforma Analysis,
Market Trends and Conditions
Mediation Negotiate Settlements on Real Property Disputes, Negotiate
Settlements for Damages and Loss of Value
Real Estate Advisory
Succession planning for families and businesses
Developing strategies on real estate holdings to meet changing goals
Dissolution of marital assets and allocation of holdings
Analysis of portfolios and strategies for the future
Valuation of investments, properties in development and limited partnership
interests